A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
