Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
